What would happen if nuclear war erupts? a silly question that anyone can answer right away, "nuclear war claims the lives of many people". However, the consequences are more than claiming lives. It worsens the already messy weather and climate, releases pollutants into the air which leaves generations struggle to remove from the air, and it can pollute water and the atmosphere. It could also alter the general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, and worsens weather and climate. The already wet regions remain wet and the already dry regions remain dry, i.e., there will be an increase in frequency and magnitude of the climate extremes, such as floods, heat waves and other water and wind storms.
What is really a nuclear war? A nuclear war is when the fighting parties are equipped with nuclear warheads and are capable of dropping the bomb at the intended battlefield and/or economically active region that would cripple the economy and power of the opposing side. So, generally cities are at risk if nuclear war breaks out at any time because cities are the power houses of the social, political, economical and environmental cores of countries. Nuclear war, therefore, would have catastrophic consequences on climate and air quality of a given city and its surroundings for a long period of time.
What are nuclear warheads? It is an explosive that gets its power from nuclear fission and/or fusion reactions. If it is made of fission reaction only, it is called fission bomb. If it is made from a combination of fission and fusion reactions, it is called thermonuclear bomb. Fission reaction is when an atom with large atomic mass breaks down into two lighter atoms. Due to the high heat generated, the two lighter atoms may breakdown into other atoms lighter atmos, i.e., the two atoms become four lighter atoms. These chain of reactions brings about millions of tons of energy. To tap away the energy in the atomic nucleus, therefore, requires a heavy atomic mass element. With the current technology, those atoms with spontaneous emissions and hence seconds of half-lives are consumed for the purpose of high energy nuclear warheads. Currently, these materials are plutonium and uranium. To achieve, maximum energy weapon grade material, enrichment techniques are used. The fission bombs were used during world war II on two active Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the world had already witnessed the horrific catastrophic consequences of such devices. Since then, there have been an interesting yet devastating progress to increase the energy content of a nuclear warhead. The fission reactions are combined with fusion reactions to create one of the catastrophic weapons of our time, thermonuclear (hydrogen) bombs. Normally, it is the star that derives its energy from the fusion reaction to light their planets and the galaxies. For example, in the solar system the sun powers the planets from the energy derived from fusion reaction in the center of the sun. Fusion reaction is the energy released during the combination of two lighter atoms to form heavier and more stable atom, e.g., two hydrogen atoms forming helium. However, fusion is difficult in the normal environment. There need to be high temperature and pressure to achieve it. While fission reaction is now possible, it creates high temperature that would trigger fusion reaction inside the fission devices. Therefore, by combining fission materials with fusion materials, the thermonuclear bomb is created. There were lots of countries that have claimed to have such weapons. Simultaneously, testing on fields is a common event as countries move to achieve the highest power possible. I weep for humanity! power and control is the choice rather than equality, peace and harmony.
How can nuclear war affect weather and climate? The detonation of nuclear warheads could release dust, ash, smoke and debris into the atmosphere. These would absorb and reflect most of the incoming solar radiation and cools down the Earth. The cooling down may not be limited to few degrees Celsius, but from 10-20 degrees depending up on the severity of the conflict. Most people refer this as "the nuclear winter". This is not only the consequence, the general atmospheric and ocean circulation are also affected. This could be depressing east-west and/or north/south air movement, which would highly alters the global hydrological cycle creating intense rain in few localized areas and intense drought in others. So, flooding and drought become more to the norm than to the extremes. The worse event is the released smoke and scattered aerosols in the atmosphere take long to clear. They stay there for a long time exacerbating and creating more sever weather and climate. Since urban regions are the most visible targets for such wars, urban weather and climate changes significantly for a long period of time. The urban heat island (UHI) effect becomes worse and there will be more intense precipitation due to the availability of more condensation nuclei from the nuclear ashes. Where there is few or no vegetation, soil moisture and lakes, rivers and other water bodies, the cities become drier and are vulnerable to intense heat waves. The other more direct effect is on agriculture. Solar radiation is a key component of photosynthesis. Plants use sunlight to cook their food and if there is less of the incoming solar radiation, plants remain starved and hence result in starvation and famine to all animals. The yield may be affected both regionally and globally and may not be stabilized within a short period of time. Moreover, the impact on ecosystem is catastrophic and absimal.
How do nuclear war affect air quality?
Millions of tons of ashes and particulate matters, PMs will be released into the atmosphere resulting in poor air quality. Depending upon the intensity of the war, the air quality drops from normal to abnormal and severe within seconds after nuclear detonation. The consequence will be the increase in the number of patients of asthma and other lung diseases such as silicosis. It also affects children in other profound ways, low solar radiation penetrating to the surface results in deficiency of vitamin D. Overall, the expenses for medical examinations and drugs increases and the economic loss would be devastating. Consequently, the half life of these nuclear PMs will be higher since most of these particulates are drawn from the Earth's surface forcefully into the atmosphere. This would prolong the damaging effect on plants and animals.
How can we know the effects of nuclear war?
The best way to know the effects of such nuclear war is by doing computer simulations using weather and climate models coupled to chemistry/aerosols models. Furthermore, coupled urban canopy models with climate and chemistry/aerosol models give first hand information about the scale of devastation to the weather, climate and air quality. The first controlled experiment would involve scenarios of war, e.g., low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity. In the lower intensity nuclear war one or two thermonuclear war heads may be considered in the simulation. The space and time at which the detonation happens have significant difference on the outcome of the simulation. For example, if the detonation happens at the equator and mid-longitude, it may have devastating impact on weather and climate than the same detonation in the mid-or high latitudes and edges of longitudes. In the former case, the effect on the general atmospheric and oceanic circulation is higher than in the later case.
Once the simulation at the lower scenario is done, medium scenario nuclear war simulation can be done. It may start with, if more than 5 nuclear war heads are detonated, how would it affect the weather and climate? Finally, if more than 10, 20, etc at the intense war case, if more than two countries are involved, such as the case of world war.
Overall, such simulations are useful and would prepare us to at least save humanity from such catastrophes. Since leaders of countries are of different behavior, we can't know when and where such mistakes may happen. Therefore, preparation saves us from mistakes someone may do at any future time. I would like to reinstate that though, "prevention is better than cure". So, no nuclear war please.
How should we prepare for a likely nuclear war? The first thing we should do is prepare shelter for as many people as possible with food for as a long days as possible. To remain in or near cities or other probable target areas, one would need better protection against blast, fire, and fallout than is provided by most shelters in buildings. The best place for shelter is to dig holes with few meters of entry and exit that would lower the entry of radiation and pollutants. It could be better if the hole is dug first vertically for entry and then horizontally along one side so that there will be small opening to the external world. This would highly reduces the radiation and debris entering the hole and blocks away completely.
The second advisable step is to get air quality masks that would lower the particles entering our lungs. This would normally helps us when we get out of the hole.
What is really a nuclear war? A nuclear war is when the fighting parties are equipped with nuclear warheads and are capable of dropping the bomb at the intended battlefield and/or economically active region that would cripple the economy and power of the opposing side. So, generally cities are at risk if nuclear war breaks out at any time because cities are the power houses of the social, political, economical and environmental cores of countries. Nuclear war, therefore, would have catastrophic consequences on climate and air quality of a given city and its surroundings for a long period of time.
What are nuclear warheads? It is an explosive that gets its power from nuclear fission and/or fusion reactions. If it is made of fission reaction only, it is called fission bomb. If it is made from a combination of fission and fusion reactions, it is called thermonuclear bomb. Fission reaction is when an atom with large atomic mass breaks down into two lighter atoms. Due to the high heat generated, the two lighter atoms may breakdown into other atoms lighter atmos, i.e., the two atoms become four lighter atoms. These chain of reactions brings about millions of tons of energy. To tap away the energy in the atomic nucleus, therefore, requires a heavy atomic mass element. With the current technology, those atoms with spontaneous emissions and hence seconds of half-lives are consumed for the purpose of high energy nuclear warheads. Currently, these materials are plutonium and uranium. To achieve, maximum energy weapon grade material, enrichment techniques are used. The fission bombs were used during world war II on two active Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the world had already witnessed the horrific catastrophic consequences of such devices. Since then, there have been an interesting yet devastating progress to increase the energy content of a nuclear warhead. The fission reactions are combined with fusion reactions to create one of the catastrophic weapons of our time, thermonuclear (hydrogen) bombs. Normally, it is the star that derives its energy from the fusion reaction to light their planets and the galaxies. For example, in the solar system the sun powers the planets from the energy derived from fusion reaction in the center of the sun. Fusion reaction is the energy released during the combination of two lighter atoms to form heavier and more stable atom, e.g., two hydrogen atoms forming helium. However, fusion is difficult in the normal environment. There need to be high temperature and pressure to achieve it. While fission reaction is now possible, it creates high temperature that would trigger fusion reaction inside the fission devices. Therefore, by combining fission materials with fusion materials, the thermonuclear bomb is created. There were lots of countries that have claimed to have such weapons. Simultaneously, testing on fields is a common event as countries move to achieve the highest power possible. I weep for humanity! power and control is the choice rather than equality, peace and harmony.
How can nuclear war affect weather and climate? The detonation of nuclear warheads could release dust, ash, smoke and debris into the atmosphere. These would absorb and reflect most of the incoming solar radiation and cools down the Earth. The cooling down may not be limited to few degrees Celsius, but from 10-20 degrees depending up on the severity of the conflict. Most people refer this as "the nuclear winter". This is not only the consequence, the general atmospheric and ocean circulation are also affected. This could be depressing east-west and/or north/south air movement, which would highly alters the global hydrological cycle creating intense rain in few localized areas and intense drought in others. So, flooding and drought become more to the norm than to the extremes. The worse event is the released smoke and scattered aerosols in the atmosphere take long to clear. They stay there for a long time exacerbating and creating more sever weather and climate. Since urban regions are the most visible targets for such wars, urban weather and climate changes significantly for a long period of time. The urban heat island (UHI) effect becomes worse and there will be more intense precipitation due to the availability of more condensation nuclei from the nuclear ashes. Where there is few or no vegetation, soil moisture and lakes, rivers and other water bodies, the cities become drier and are vulnerable to intense heat waves. The other more direct effect is on agriculture. Solar radiation is a key component of photosynthesis. Plants use sunlight to cook their food and if there is less of the incoming solar radiation, plants remain starved and hence result in starvation and famine to all animals. The yield may be affected both regionally and globally and may not be stabilized within a short period of time. Moreover, the impact on ecosystem is catastrophic and absimal.
How do nuclear war affect air quality?
Millions of tons of ashes and particulate matters, PMs will be released into the atmosphere resulting in poor air quality. Depending upon the intensity of the war, the air quality drops from normal to abnormal and severe within seconds after nuclear detonation. The consequence will be the increase in the number of patients of asthma and other lung diseases such as silicosis. It also affects children in other profound ways, low solar radiation penetrating to the surface results in deficiency of vitamin D. Overall, the expenses for medical examinations and drugs increases and the economic loss would be devastating. Consequently, the half life of these nuclear PMs will be higher since most of these particulates are drawn from the Earth's surface forcefully into the atmosphere. This would prolong the damaging effect on plants and animals.
How can we know the effects of nuclear war?
The best way to know the effects of such nuclear war is by doing computer simulations using weather and climate models coupled to chemistry/aerosols models. Furthermore, coupled urban canopy models with climate and chemistry/aerosol models give first hand information about the scale of devastation to the weather, climate and air quality. The first controlled experiment would involve scenarios of war, e.g., low intensity, medium intensity, high intensity. In the lower intensity nuclear war one or two thermonuclear war heads may be considered in the simulation. The space and time at which the detonation happens have significant difference on the outcome of the simulation. For example, if the detonation happens at the equator and mid-longitude, it may have devastating impact on weather and climate than the same detonation in the mid-or high latitudes and edges of longitudes. In the former case, the effect on the general atmospheric and oceanic circulation is higher than in the later case.
Once the simulation at the lower scenario is done, medium scenario nuclear war simulation can be done. It may start with, if more than 5 nuclear war heads are detonated, how would it affect the weather and climate? Finally, if more than 10, 20, etc at the intense war case, if more than two countries are involved, such as the case of world war.
Overall, such simulations are useful and would prepare us to at least save humanity from such catastrophes. Since leaders of countries are of different behavior, we can't know when and where such mistakes may happen. Therefore, preparation saves us from mistakes someone may do at any future time. I would like to reinstate that though, "prevention is better than cure". So, no nuclear war please.
How should we prepare for a likely nuclear war? The first thing we should do is prepare shelter for as many people as possible with food for as a long days as possible. To remain in or near cities or other probable target areas, one would need better protection against blast, fire, and fallout than is provided by most shelters in buildings. The best place for shelter is to dig holes with few meters of entry and exit that would lower the entry of radiation and pollutants. It could be better if the hole is dug first vertically for entry and then horizontally along one side so that there will be small opening to the external world. This would highly reduces the radiation and debris entering the hole and blocks away completely.
The second advisable step is to get air quality masks that would lower the particles entering our lungs. This would normally helps us when we get out of the hole.
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